Abstract
Abstract The concept of “declining reach” is examined in the context of magazine exposure-distribution models. Declining reach occurs in media models when additional insertions to a schedule lead to lower reach than the initial schedule reach. Such an outcome is a logical impossibility and indicates a serious deficiency in any reach/frequency model. Empirical tests in this study, conducted on schedules developed by a large advertising agency, show the frequently used beta binomial distribution-direct estimation method (BBD-DE) is subject to declining reach. An alternative model, the Morgensztern sequential aggregation distribution (MSAD), is developed and tested. This new model appears to greatly reduce the declining reach problem.
Published Version
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