Abstract

For globally systemically important banks (GSIBs) with U.S. headquarters, we find significant post-Lehman reductions in market-implied probabilities of government bailout, along with 50%-to-100% higher wholesale debt financing costs for these banks after controlling for insolvency risk. The data are consistent with measurable effectiveness for the official sector’s post-Lehman GSIB failure-resolution intentions, laws, and rules. GSIB creditors now appear to expect to suffer much larger losses in the event that a GSIB approaches insolvency. In this sense, we estimate a major decline of too big to fail.

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