The Decline of the African National Congress in South Africa’s 2016 Municipal Elections

Abstract

Using data from a nationally representative post-election public opinion survey, the article argues that the electoral losses experienced by the African National Congress (ANC) in the 2016 municipal election were a manifestation of an attitudinal shift among the governing party’s traditional support base. ANC vote choice was influenced by a combination of performance-based evaluations of the party at both the national and local levels: namely, a growing trust deficit in the ANC and its leadership, and perceived service delivery failures at the local level. The analysis concludes that poor performance and distrust of incumbents, including a sitting president, can have a significant bearing on voter attitudes and behaviour at elections. Moreover, despite the replacement of Jacob Zuma with President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2017, the ANC will need to continue to address its internal leadership issues and perceptions of corruption to secure substantial victories in future elections.