The decision support system based on logic of plausible reasoning

Abstract

The intention of this work is to show how logic of plausible reasoning (LPR) can be successfully used for solving complex decision problems. In the following sections a decision involve the use of LPR is described, and then its operation was illustrated on the example of an expertize concerning the choice of technology for making metal products. A knowledge base on the examined group of materials is presented and practical functioning of the system for the choice of a metal processing technology is disclosed. Typical scenarios of the system usage are presented, serving at the same time as a tool to verify its functionality. In particular, it is expected to create a module allowing automatic generation of rules to the knowledge base, and introduce machine learning to achieve optimal parameters of the inference process. The approach proposed in this study can be applied to a broad class of metal products, but in every case it should take into account the speciffic nature of a particular group of products and technological parameters of the materials used.