The Decadal Scale Variation of Rainfall-Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

应用1951-2001年长江流域年、季降水量资料、1885-2001年梅雨量资料以及一百多年以来长江重要控制站宜昌、汉口、大通年径流量资料,对长江流域降水径流的年代际变化、气候转折以及降水径流的变化趋势进行了分析研究.反映出长江流域夏季降水将有更加集中的趋势,即降水时间更集中、强度趋向于更大,对防洪不利.据趋势预测,宜昌、汉口径流量有减少的趋势,大通径流量有增加的趋势.;The decadal scale variation of rainfall-runoff as well as the climatic changes and the variation trends of rain-fall-runoff in the Yangtze River Valley were studied. Observations reveal a trend that the rainfall in the summer period in the Yangtze River Valley will be more and more concentrated, that is to say, the raining period will be more concentrated and the rainfall intensity will be stronger, which is disadvantageous to the flood control. According to the prediction in trends, the future runoff in Yichang and Hankou Stations will possibly decline while the runoff in Datong station will increase.