Abstract
Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.
Highlights
The term “decadal prediction”, as used here, encompasses predictions on annual, multi-annual and decadal timescales
The Decadal Climate Prediction Panel, in conjunction with the Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), is coordinating the scientific and practical aspects of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) which will contribute to the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6 – Eyring et al, 2016)
The DCPP is unique in bringing together researchers from communities with expertise in seasonal to interannual prediction as well as climate simulation
Summary
The term “decadal prediction”, as used here, encompasses predictions on annual, multi-annual and decadal timescales. The evolution of the forecast and observed variables of the physical climate system is a combination of externally forced and internally generated components, both of which are important on annual to decadal timescales. It is important for successful decadal prediction that both the externally forced and internally generated components of the system are initialized, and it is useful to diagnose their individual contribution to the skill of the hindcasts and forecasts. The information generated by the DCPP can provide a basis for socially relevant operational climate predictions on annual to decadal timescales These results will be of interest generally as well as to international organizations such as the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS)
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