Abstract
The process of world globalization, labor, and academic mobility, the visa-free regime with the EU countries have caused a significant revival of migration processes in Ukraine. However, there is still the research gap in the most informative, and, at the same time, accurate method of the assessment and forecasting of the migration flows. Thus, the object of research is migration processes (mostly emphasizing the emigration flows). The motives, causes of emigration processes, and their relationship with the economic state were analyzed. The impact factors of external labor migration on the economy of the host countries were revealed, particularly the negative and positive impacts of emigration on the socio-economic situation in Ukraine and the migration attitude of Ukrainians were assessed.The main result of study is further development of the econometric model for forecasting the number of emigrants from Ukraine to other countries in the nearest future. The model considers the factors of minimum wage lavel in Ukraine, the number of open vacancies in the countries of Eastern Europe, and the level of competition for jobs. According to the results of forecasting based on Maple computer algebra system and Microsoft Power BI analytical platform, by the end of 2019, the number of emigrants from Ukraine supposed to be the largest in the last four years and to reach the estimates in the range from 2,444 to 2,550 million people, which may indicate a new third wave of emigration processes.
Highlights
In contemporary conditions of socio-economic relations in Ukraine, the issue of migration is becoming more and more acute
According to the results of forecasting based on Maple computer algebra system and Microsoft Power BI analytical platform, by the end of 2019, the number of emigrants from Ukraine supposed to be the largest in the last four years and to reach the estimates in the range from 2,444 to 2,550 million people, which may indicate a new third wave of emigration processes
For Ukraine, unresolved problems with the labor market, increase in unemployment, low living standards, annexation of the Crimea, and deployment of hostilities in the Donbas region are claimed as the main reasons to push inhabitants out of the state in search of the better life
Summary
In contemporary conditions of socio-economic relations in Ukraine, the issue of migration is becoming more and more acute. The main result of study is further development of the econometric model for forecasting the number of emigrants from Ukraine to other countries in the nearest future.
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