The DAS28-ESR cutoff value necessary to achieve remission under the new Boolean-based remission criteria in patients receiving tocilizumab

Abstract

To seek the cutoff value of the 28-joint disease activity score using erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) that is necessary to achieve remission under the new Boolean-based criteria, we analyzed the data for 285 patients with rheumatoid arthritis registered between May 2008 and November 2009 by the Michinoku Tocilizumab Study Group and observed for 1 year after receiving tocilizumab (TCZ) in real clinical practice. Remission rates under the DAS28-ESR criteria and the Boolean criteria were assessed every 6 months after the first TCZ dose. The DAS28-ESR cutoff value necessary to achieve remission under the new criteria was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Data were analyzed using last observation carried forward. After 12 months of TCZ use, remission was achieved in 164 patients (57.5 %) by DAS28-ESR and 71 patients (24.9 %) under the new criteria for clinical trials. CRP levels scarcely affected remission rates, and the difference between remission rates defined by DAS28-ESR and by the new criteria was mainly due to patient global assessment (PGA). Improvement of PGA was inversely related to disease duration. ROC analysis revealed that the DAS28-ESR cutoff value necessary to predict remission under the new criteria for clinical trials was 1.54, with a sensitivity of 88.7 %, specificity of 85.5 %, positive predictive value of 67.0 %, and negative predictive value of 95.8 %. A DAS28-ESR cutoff value of 1.54 may be reasonable to predict achievement of remission under the new Boolean-based criteria for clinical trials in patients receiving TCZ.