The Dangers of NATO–Russian Confrontation : Why the Official Western Threat Analysis is Irrational

Endre Szénási

doi:10.32565/aarms.2016.3.9

Abstract

We are witnessing a new era where NATO and Russia are engaged in deep a confrontation, including its military dimension. The West – especially the US and some countries on the Eastern borders of NATO – equal the Russian threat against Europe to that of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), and Ebola. Plenty of studies examine Russian use of hybrid warfare in “aggressions” against independent states, including Ukraine, Georgia, and last but not least Estonia, a member of the Alliance.The portrayal of Russia, as the leading military threat against NATO is a hopelessly flawed threat perception that makes no sense at strategic level, unless it serves unstated and concealed geopolitical goals of some great powers. Both a conventional and a nuclear war between NATO and Russia are completely irrational and in nobody’s interest, since it will inflict enormous damage and there could be no real winner.If a conventional military incident might occur between NATO and Russia, the parties will most likely restrain themselves to avoid a major war, as they did in several confrontations briefly analysed in the article. If a nuclear confrontation occurs, the capabilities of both parties are far more than enough to change living conditions on Earth beyond recognition, when the remnants of humanity will struggle to survive.It is in Europe’s interest to reverse the confrontational course with Russia, while the perception of an “aggressive” Russia as a key military threat mainly serves US interests. The ultimate paradox is that Russia would truly become a leading threat to peace and security if the West succeeds destabilising her.

Highlights

US–Russian tensions have reached an unprecedented level since the end of the Cold War, when cooperation between the two countries broke off in Syria and the Obama administration started considering options to resolve the crisis, including direct US military strikes against the Assad regime without a UN Security Council resolution
Weapons, training, intelligence info, etc.) to the respective parties, since it could lead to a direct military confrontation between the two great nuclear powers, that could possibly escalate into a major war
The deterioration of diplomatic relations between the US and Russia lead to a reality, when the discussion of mortar fire by terrorist groups on the Russian Embassy in Syria was blocked by the US at the UN Security Council

Summary

Introduction

US–Russian tensions have reached an unprecedented level since the end of the Cold War, when cooperation between the two countries broke off in Syria and the Obama administration started considering options to resolve the crisis, including direct US military strikes against the Assad regime without a UN Security Council resolution. [1] Lack of military cooperation and the possibility of parallel US–Russian bombing of each-others protégées in Syria could lead to a proxy war far more dangerous than providing various forms of aid (finances, Endre SZÉNÁSI: The Dangers of NATO–Russian Confrontation: Why the Official Western Threat...weapons, training, intelligence info, etc.) to the respective parties (the Assad regime, the rebels, and/or terrorist groups, etc.), since it could lead to a direct military confrontation between the two great nuclear powers, that could possibly escalate into a major war.The deterioration of diplomatic relations between the US and Russia lead to a reality, when the discussion of mortar fire by terrorist groups on the Russian Embassy in Syria was blocked by the US (plus Great Britain, and Ukraine) at the UN Security Council. [2] Such lack of trust and cooperation between great powers goes beyond rationality, contradicts international law and under no circumstances serves the interests of peace and prosperity of mankind.Such conditions provide special actuality to reconsidering the threat assessment of Russia and the possibilities of new policies averting a major, direct military confrontation between the US and Russia – NATO and Russia.Carefully Measured and Limited Russian Military Interventions In the Post-Cold War EraThe dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, combined with the demise of the Warsaw Pact signalled a new era when the legacy of the classic “Cold War” appeared to be mostly overcome for many politicians and experts around the world. Weapons, training, intelligence info, etc.) to the respective parties (the Assad regime, the rebels, and/or terrorist groups, etc.), since it could lead to a direct military confrontation between the two great nuclear powers, that could possibly escalate into a major war.

Results

Conclusion