The curse of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment: assessing the role of property rights amidst the pandemic

Abstract

ABSTRACT How did the COVID-19 pandemic impact foreign direct investment (FDI)? Following the outbreak of COVID-19, the overall volume of FDI inflows plummeted. However, COVID-19’s adverse effects on FDI in host countries exhibited discernible variability contingent upon the characteristics of domestic institutions, particularly the robustness of property rights within these countries. While host countries with strong property rights experienced a mitigated negative impact on FDI, contrary to general expectations, our analysis suggests that host countries with weak property rights may have also evaded a significant reduction in FDI inflows during the pandemic. This was primarily because both strong and weak property rights institutions in host countries conveyed positive signals to investors, which may have incentivized them to continue their investments even amidst the pandemic-induced crisis. Analyzing a time-series cross-sectional dataset of 126 developing countries covering the period 2009–2021, our findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between FDI and property rights. This implies that COVID-19’s impact manifested as a weak negative force on FDI inflows in host countries with weak property rights as well as those with strong property rights. Conversely, host countries with moderately strong property rights tended to suffer a substantial reduction in FDI.