The Current Status of ARAC and Its Application to the Chernobyl Event

Abstract

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) project, developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), provides real-time dose assessments and estimates of the extent of surface contamination that may result from an atmospheric release of radioactivity. It utilizes advanced computer-based data communication and processing systems to acquire the meteorological and source term information needed by the three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models to derive the consequence assessments. The ARAC responded to the recent Chernobyl reactor accident in the Soviet Union by estimating the source term and the radiation dose distribution due to exposure to the radioactive cloud over Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. This analysis revealed that approximately 50% of the estimated core inventories of 1-131 and Cs-137 were released. The estimated committed effective dose equivalent due to inhalation of radioactivity during cloud passage is of the order of 10 mrem within parts of Scandinavia and eastern Europe, while most of the populations within central Europe were exposed to levels ranging from 1-10 mrem. The amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident far exceeds that released by previous reactor accidents, but is only about 6% o of the Cs-137 produced by the atmospheric weapon testing programs.