THE CURRENT DYNAMICS OF THE SUBMARINE PERMAFROST AND METHANE EMISSION ON THE SHELF OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC SEAS

Abstract

We study the methane emission over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) under the changing sub-aquatic permafrost conditions from the time of inundation 9–6 thousand years BP to present and further until the end of the millennium. The study is based on the full-physics model of hydrothermal regime of soil. Our results indicate that the current elevated methane emission from ESAS is responsible for 0.01 oС global air temperature rise. Even under the hypothetic climate scenario that overestimates the range of near-bottom water temperature rise, projected by the end of the millennium thawing of the bottom sediments is likely to be about90 mand will thus not reach the upper limit of the methane hydrate stability zone that is located 100–140 munderneath the sea bottom. The results of the study do not support the so called «methane bomb» hypothesis that is widely discussed in the scientific literature and in the media.