The current and projected drought-caused loss of the spring wheat yield in the south of European Russia

Abstract

The study focuses on the linkage between droughts at the beginning of the crop growing season and the yield of spring wheat in southern regions of European Russia. Its extrapolation into the future helps to analyze possible climatic risks in the spring wheat growing. It was found that moderate droughts from May to June, detected by using Standardized Precipitation Index data, in most cases have led to low yields. It was revealed that changes in the air moisture conditions in late spring and early summer in the period 1991-2018 compared with the previous thirty-year period were generally more favorable for the cultivation of spring wheat in most southern regions of European Russia. These positive changes were due to a decrease in the frequency of droughts. At the same time, a significant increase in the frequency of such droughts was observed in Samarskaya and Orenburgskaya oblasts, where the largest sown areas of spring wheat are situated. According to model projections of the future climate, similar changes in the air moisture conditions in the study area will generally remain favorable by the middle of the 21st century. Unfavorable regional forecasts associated with a possible increase in the frequency of droughts at the start of the crop growing season are predicted in Kuban, the east of the Volga region, and the north of the Lower Volga region and the southeast of the Central Black Earth region, in the North-Western Caspian Sea region.