The current and future seasonal geographic distribution of largehead hairtail Trichiurus japonicus in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea

Abstract

Largehead hairtail Trichiurus japonicus is a major commercial fish species in the Beibu Gulf of the northwestern South China Sea. Despite much effort to protect the fishery resource, the current stock of T. japonicus is overexploited. As the impacts of climate change unfold globally, seasonal changes in the distribution of largehead hairtail in the Beibu Gulf have not yet been clarified. Maximum entropy model based on mixed layer depth and salinity were projected onto seasonal habitat changes of T. japonicus in the Beibu Gulf under a current scenario and three different Representative Concentration Pathways (126, 370, 585) to evaluate geographic distribution changes under the different climate-change scenarios. The current geographic distribution results showed variation with seasonality, as the wintering population shifts toward the northeast. Under each of three SSP scenarios, there is higher risk to habitat suitability in the 2090s as compared with that in the 2050s. The disadvantage to T. japonicus distribution is greatest in winter under each of the three climate change scenarios, both in the short- and long-term. Potential suitable habitat distributions have a minor range extension in Representative Concentration Pathway 370–2050 winter, but in the rest of the scenes and years they contract to south of the Beibu Gulf. The overall results indicate that seasonal differences in suitable habitat should be considered to ensure effective planning of future management strategies for T. japonicus.