The current and future potential geographic range of West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Abstract

The West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), is one of the most important pests throughout the Americas. CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of this pest. Under current climatic conditions, A. obliqua is predicted to be able to establish throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including not only North and South America, where it has been reported, but also southern Asia, northeastern Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion may be cold stress. Climate change expands the potential distribution of A. obliqua poleward as cold stress boundaries recede, but the predicted distribution in northwestern Australia and northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease because of heat stress. Considering the widely suitable range for A. obliqua globally and in China, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.