The crucial role of biomass-based heat in a climate-friendly Germany–A scenario analysis

Abstract

The future provision of heat from biomass in Germany is strongly influenced by the country's climate policy goals, such as the target of reducing GHG emissions by 80%–95% over 1990 levels by 2050. Emphasizing one goal over the other could significantly shape the bioenergy and heating sector. The aim of this paper is to analyze long-term energy scenario results and interpret the possible influence of different GHG goals on biomass utilization in the heating sector. The findings show that a 95% reduction in GHG emissions in Germany would lead to an energy system that is almost completely based on renewables. A significant proportion would be fluctuating energies, such as direct heating from surplus wind and PV power, as well as solar-thermal and ambient heat from electrical air-to-water heat pumps. In this case, the role of bioenergy would shift away from being an efficient source for base-load generation, towards being an effective “stabilizer” of the heat and combined power system. The study presents comparative results of scenario parameters and analyzes the consequences for bioenergy in the heating sector. Finally, it concludes with recommendations for policy adjustment.