Abstract
It is unsurprising that the Red Sea region has come into sharper strategic focus for great powers as well as regional powers, given that 12% of global seaborne trade, 40% of Europe’s trade with Asia and the Middle East, and 8% of seaborne hydrocarbons pass through the Red Sea. Yet the region is chronically underdeveloped and conflict-ridden. Overlapping rivalries involving Iran, Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries pose risks of intensifying regional discord. The United States has prioritised empowering its regional partners and strengthening emerging Israel–Gulf security synergies to counteract Iran’s activities and check China, which has become a key economic actor in the region and opened its first overseas military base, in Djibouti, in 2017. Given the potential divergence between American and regional concerns, however, neither US nor regional involvement appears likely to stabilise the region.
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