The criticality of crude oil for energy security: A case of Poland

Abstract

The aim of the study was analysis of the criticality of crude oil for a Poland. The need to ensure continuous supply of oil for the Polish economy is one of the key foundations of energy security. Small domestic production, continuous increase in demand and growing share in the national structure of primary energy consumption result in a continuous increase of oil imports to Poland. Currently, imported oil cover above 97% of domestic consumption. It is the most important imported mineral for the Polish economy, whose value of annual consumption exceeds the total value of all other consumed mineral in Poland. One of the main goal of Polish energy policy is the strong diversification of sources of oil imports, with limiting its supplies from high risk countries. Authors tried to confirm criticality of crude oil for the Polish economy using the original methodology of determining key, strategic and critical minerals. They thoroughly analyzed trends in the development of this mineral consumption in the last two decades, indicating limited possibilities of crude oil substitution in the coming two decades. The possibilities of developing domestic production, and directions for the diversification of crude oil imports to Poland, were also considered.