The Crime Displacement Hypothesis: an Empirical Examination

Abstract

It has been suggested that crime prevention programs comprising deterrence and/or target-hardening components are futile, since they fail to deal with primary criminogenic factors. According to this position, efforts to suppress criminality will result in compensating behavior on the part of those committed to criminal life styles. Crime displacement, this adjustment to circumvent preventive measures, can occur along three fundamental dimensions—the spatial, temporal, or qualitative. Irrespective of which mode of adaptation is adopted in a given situation, displacement ideally manifests itself in the stabilization of crime rates. The displacement hypothesis was subjected in this study to empirical analysis through the evaluation of a residential burglary prevention program that involved the marking of household proper ty. Three forms of displacement were examined: the possibility of a shift in criminal activity from the homes of program participants to those of nonparticipants, a shift in crime from residences to businesses, and the theft of unmarked rather than marked merchandise. Statistically significant indicators are found for the first form of displacement only; however, for the latter two types of displacement, changes in the patterns of burglary did occur in the direction consis tent with the hypothesis.