The COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Malaysia: Lessons Learned from the Perspective of Population Density.

Siew Bee Aw,Mohd Hamdan Ahmad,Pau Chung Leng,Bor Tsong Teh,Weng Howe Chan,Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling

doi:10.3390/ijerph18126566

Siew Bee Aw, Mohd Hamdan Ahmad + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126566

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Abstract

This paper attempts to ascertain the impacts of population density on the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Besides describing the spatio-temporal contagion risk of the virus, ultimately, it seeks to test the hypothesis that higher population density results in exacerbated COVID-19 virulence in the community. The population density of 143 districts in Malaysia, as per data from Malaysia’s 2010 population census, was plotted against cumulative COVID-19 cases and infection rates of COVID-19 cases, which were obtained from Malaysia’s Ministry of Health official website. The data of these three variables were collected between 19 January 2020 and 31 December 2020. Based on the observations, districts that have high population densities and are highly inter-connected with neighbouring districts, whether geographically, socio-economically, or infrastructurally, tend to experience spikes in COVID-19 cases within weeks of each other. Using a parametric approach of the Pearson correlation, population density was found to have a moderately strong relationship to cumulative COVID-19 cases (p-value of 0.000 and R2 of 0.415) and a weak relationship to COVID-19 infection rates (p-value of 0.005 and R2 of 0.047). Consequently, we provide several non-pharmaceutical lessons, including urban planning strategies, as passive containment measures that may better support disease interventions against future contagious diseases.

Highlights

The highly infectious novel coronavirus disease, more commonly known as COVID-19, is an ongoing pandemic that has strained health facilities worldwide
Based on the above synthesis, we found that there are inconsistent findings or lack of consensus about the effects of population density on the COVID-19 transmission; questions of whether or how significant population density impacts the severity of COVID-19 remain unanswered, for the case of Malaysia as there no empirical research has been undertaken so far
In the absence of widespread vaccination against COVID-19, which is currently underway in Malaysia, mask-wearing and social-distancing are probably among the most effective ways to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

Summary

Introduction

The highly infectious novel coronavirus disease, more commonly known as COVID-19, is an ongoing pandemic that has strained health facilities worldwide. As of 31 March 2021, it has infected 129 million and killed 2.83 million people; up to that date, Malaysia has recorded 345,500 infections and 1272 deaths since the first case reported on 24 January 2020. The inventions of COVID-19 detection kits, such as RTK-Ag and RT-PCR, as well as vaccines, such as Pfizer-BioNTech, AstraZeneca, or Sinovac, while timely, are overshadowed by the continuous mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. African strain B.1.351, and Brazilian strain P.1 were reported to be more infectious [1]. New strains reported in France and Finland were reported to be undetectable by standard RTK-PCR tests [2]. Existing vaccines only reduce the risk and severity of the infection [3]

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