The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Political Situation in France before 2022 Elections

Abstract

The article explores the political situation in modern France the year before the next presidential election. It is revealed that during Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, a social divide between wealthy and poor social groups has taken root in the country manifested in the “yellow vests” movement and a wide-range public disagreement with the reforms proposed by the government. The negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which overlapped with the previous contradictions and aggravated them, is discussed. The article also shows that, apart from the “National Rally”, no other political forces now represent a real opposition to Macron’s policy, thus helping him to keep relatively high chances for re-election. This is especially true in case of two traditional parties – the Republicans and the Socialists – which have suffered from a profound internal crisis. In conclusion, regarding a likely contest between Macron and Le Pen in 2022, prospects of changes in domestic and foreign policy of France after the election are formulated. The author concludes that even in the “Le Pen wins” scenario, any innovations will have a limited impact, taking into account the role of continuity in the French state policy and the growing moderation of the far right platform.