The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global labour Market: an Analysis of Emerging Trends (Part One)

Abstract

In the context of the economic crisis caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, the global labour market has faced serious challenges, on the timeliness and effectiveness of the response to which the viability of the world economy today depends. The crisis is global in nature and has a significant impact on investment, global value chains and international trade, with serious consequences not only for the economy, but also for the working-age population in all countries of the world. The global economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic requires a thorough analysis of the scale of its consequences in order to determine the most rational solutions. A situation of uncertainty about the future, fear of devastating consequences, and pessimistic forecasts were the companions of the first days of the pandemic. This article provides the first estimates of the level of unemployment and employment in various countries of the world in 2020. The article is divided into two parts due to its large volume. The first part reveals the reasons for the differences in the dynamics of unemployment in different countries of the world, calculates the elasticity of employment by GDP, considers the consequences of the pandemic for the global labor market in the context of changes in workers' incomes, and identifies the segments of the labor market that are most susceptible to impact. The second part of the article examines in detail the state of the Russian labour market and the dynamics of the main indicators of socioeconomic development of Russia before and during the pandemic, provides forecast values of indicators, reveals the features of adaptation of the Russian labor market to new challenges and their differences from the mechanisms of self-regulation during previous economic shocks, while focusing on the changes occurring in the informal sector of the Russian economy