Abstract
BackgroundThe new coronavirus disease appeared at the end of 2019, and it is now a global problem over the world. There are multiple epidemiologic indicators used for discussing the spread of pandemics, one of these indicators is the basic reproductive ratio which indicates whether the pandemic is going to spread more or relax, and the aim of this work is estimating this ratio for the Middle East countries for two stages of the pandemic.Main body of the abstractWe employ Runge–Kutta method on SEIR model to simulate the basic reproductive ratio values of SARS-CoV-2 disease by using the recorded data of the disease for two stages, up to date May 29, 2020, in the first stage and up to date September 7, 2020, in the second stage. We estimate the coefficient of exposing rate, the coefficient of infection rate, the coefficient of recovery rate and the coefficient of mortality rate of the new coronavirus disease in addition to the basic reproductive ratio values of the disease in the Middle East countries, namely Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Yemen where we apply the SEIR epidemic model.Short conclusionWe find that the values of the basic reproductive ratio of the new coronavirus disease based on the used model in the Middle East countries start from 1.5583 to 3.0395 in the first stage and from 1.0001 to 4.5757. Besides, we find that the problem of the new coronavirus disease in Lebanon and in the Syrian Arab Republic is not good at all in the recent stage based on the values of the basic reproductive ratio comparing with other Middle East countries. Also, we find that the value of the basic reproductive ratio for the second stage is near one; however, if we apply the method for the following stages, we find that the values return to be larger because lots of people in that stage and after did not follow the governmental procedures for stopping the spreading of the disease.
Highlights
BackgroundThe new coronavirus disease appeared in Wuhan in China at the end of 2019 and caused a very big problem over the world
The differential equations of the The susceptible– exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model are given as follows (Al-Raeei 2021): dS(t) dt = − α2 I(t)S(t) N + α1[N − S(t)] (1) dE(t) dt −(α1 α3)E(t) α2 N
We used the recorded data up to date May 29, 2020, in the first stage of all cases of the new coronavirus pandemic in the Middle East countries to find the coefficient of exposing rate, the coefficient of infection rate, the coefficient of recovery rate and the coefficient of mortality rate of the new coronavirus pandemic for every country of the Middle East countries
Summary
The new coronavirus disease appeared in Wuhan in China at the end of 2019 and caused a very big problem over the world. Al‐Raeei Bull Natl Res Cent (2021) 45:112 multiple models in epidemiology used to simulate the forecasting of a specific pandemic, some use fractional derivatives, and others use ordinary differential equations. We use the SEIR model (Susceptible cases of the pandemic individual, Exposed cases of the pandemic individual, Infectious cases of the pandemic individual and Recovered cases of the pandemic individual) for purpose of estimating the basics reproductive ratio values of the new coronavirus disease. We apply the previous epidemical model to estimate the basic reproductive ratios of the new coronavirus disease in Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Yemen in addition to China, France, Russia and the USA where we take two stages of the disease into account. We illustrated the discussion of these results in the same section, while in the last section, we illustrate conclusion of the full article
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
