The COVID-19 Pandemic's Impact on User Consumption: A Shift Towards Very Efficient Load Forecasting

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted significant shifts in energy consumption patterns, necessitating a departure from traditional data analysis methods. Accurate energy forecasting models play a crucial role in various domains of planning and energy management. It is possible to predict the demand for electricity consumption using a variety of techniques. Fundamentally, this research comprises two main components. The first phase assesses the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on user consumption patterns through time series analysis. The subsequent segment is dedicated to long-term load forecasting, employing both statistical methods termed as Holt-Winters and Prophet algorithms and an Artificial Neural Network approach known as Long Short-Term Memory. These approaches aim to predict electricity demand amid the diverse and intricate context of the COVID-19 pandemic. It utilizes both conventional time series forecasting methods and advanced Artificial Intelligence models to enhance the accuracy of load forecasting. Since rapid societal and economic shifts are unpredictable during a pandemic, methods based on Artificial Intelligence are becoming extremely important due to its high precision. Though, it is problematic to conduct load prediction with high accuracy because of influencing factors like climatic, socioeconomic, and seasonal aspects. Finally, using hourly-driven power consumption data from Houston, Texas, USA, the Long Short-Term Memory model outperforms the Holt-Winters and Prophet models in a test of generalizability and accuracy. It is possible to verify the accuracy of experimental findings by analyzing the resulting constraints and influential factors.