The COVID-19 crisis in the EU: the resilience of healthcare systems, government responses and their socio-economic effects

Abstract

The global outbreak of COVID-19 forced EU governments to implement drastic confinement measures to contain the spread of the Coronavirus. These measures, however, come at a high economic cost. In this work, we analyze the resilience/preparedness of public health systems, the confinement measures introduced by governments, and their socio-economic effects. We also investigate the relationships between these elements by focusing on the EU Member States. We conduct an after-action review (AAR) study based on three indices. The first index indicates the preparedness of the countries’ health systems to deal with a potential health shock resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. The second index shows the strictness of confinement measures taken per Member State in spring 2020. Finally, the third index captures the expected socio-economic effects of such measures on each country for the year 2020. Our findings show that on average, countries with less prepared health systems implemented stricter confinement measures and that higher levels of stringency in the confinement measures are associated with stronger, negative, socio-economic impacts. However, the results differ across countries in the case of each index. Overall, the results call for health systems to be better prepared to handle public health crises and for a more coordinated EU approach to overcome divergences across countries.