The Cost of the First World War to the United States

Abstract

In this paper, a calculation of cost of the First World War to the United States is performed with the aim of evaluating the impact of the War on the American economy. The method used to make this calculation is based on the work of economic historians Claudia Goldin and Frank Lewis, who studied the cost of the American Civil War. This method involves the calculation first of the “direct cost” of the war, which represents the value of economic losses made up of war expenditures, casualties and the opportunity cost of drafted soldiers. The “indirect cost” of the War is also calculated to measure the impact of the War on American economic growth by projecting economic growth in a hypothetical world where the First World War did not occur and comparing it to the economic growth actually experienced in the United States. This calculation is meant to capture any positive effects that the War may have had. For the calculations, data was drawn from a number of primary sources including censuses and government documents. The results of both of these calculations show that the First World War had a negative impact on American growth and represented a massive drain of economic resources. In particular, the indirect cost calculation shows that American growth slowed considerably in the decade following the War. This result is significant as it contradicts the common view of the postwar period prior to the Great Depression as being one of great prosperity in the United States.