The correlation between GNSS-derived precipitable water vapor and sea surface temperature and its responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract

EI Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex ocean-atmosphere interaction phenomenon occurring in nature that has a profound impact on global atmospheric circulation. As ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, in addition to the commonly used sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor in the atmosphere can be used to monitor the evolution of ENSO and to investigate its consequences (e.g., droughts and flooding). The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), in addition to its applications for positioning, timing, and navigation, is another established atmospheric observing system used to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the atmosphere. The accuracy of the GNSS-derived PWV measurements was assessed from 12 stations based on observations made at co-located radiosonde stations as a reference. The results show that mean values of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and biases of 6-hourly GNSS-derived PWV derived from all 12 stations are valued at 1.48 mm and −0.30 mm, respectively. Regarding monthly means, mean values of the RMSE and biases of the GNSS-derived PWV are valued at 0.66 mm and −0.23 mm, respectively. The variability in PWV estimated from 56 GNSS stations positioned close to the sea indicates that it is significantly affected by ENSO events. Generally, a 1-K increase in SST will lead to an 11% increase in PWV across all of the stations. A case study conducted at the TOW2 station in Australia shows that the non-linear trend of the PWV depicts the evolution of two severe flood events and one severe drought event occurring in this region. Comparative results derived from TOW2 and from another 24 stations show a good agreement between PWV and total precipitation. These results suggest that GNSS-derived PWV together with other climatic variables (e.g., SST) can be used as an indication of the evolution of ENSO events and as a possible indicator of drought and flood occurrence.