The correlation between clinical benefit and financial cost of cancer drugs.

Abstract

7071 Background: The cost of many cancer drugs is very high, but it is unclear if these costs are associated with commensurate improvement in outcomes. We aimed to assess the association between the cost of cancer treatments and their clinical benefit, using the NCCN Evidence Blocks value assessment framework. Methods: The NCCN Evidence Blocks include 4 measures of clinical benefit: Efficacy, Safety, Quality of Evidence, and Consistency of Evidence. The NCCN assigns scores on each measure ranging from 1 (least favorable) to 5 (most favorable). We obtained the NCCN Evidence Blocks scores as of December 31, 2018 for all recommended cancer treatments for the 30 most prevalent cancers in the US. For each treatment, we calculated total treatment costs (including drugs, administration fees, and supportive care medications) using Medicare reimbursement rates. We categorized treatments as either “time-limited” or “time-unlimited” according to whether their costs are best reflected as per full treatment course (often, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments) (time-limited) or per month of therapy (often, treatments for advanced disease) (time-unlimited). We used generalized estimating equations, with clustering within treatment indications, to estimate the association between Evidence Blocks scores and treatment costs, modeling the expected change in cost associated with a one-unit increase in the score on an Evidence Blocks measure. Results: There were 541 time-unlimited and 845 time-limited treatments. Among time-unlimited treatments, monthly treatment cost ranged from $4 to $64,630. Monthly treatment cost was positively associated with Efficacy ($3,036, 95%CI: $1,782, $4,289) and Quality of Evidence ($1,509, 95%CI: $171, $2,847) but negatively associated with Safety (-$1,470, 95%CI: -$2,790, -$151) and Consistency of Evidence (-$2,003, 95%CI -$3,420, -$586). Among time-limited treatments, cost per course of therapy ranged from $0 to $775,559, and no measure was significantly associated with cost. Evidence Blocks scores accounted for little of the variation in treatment cost (linear model R-squared = 0.10 for time-unlimited, and < 0.01 for time-unlimited). Conclusions: The association between NCCN Evidence Blocks measures and treatment cost was inconsistent, and accounted for little of the cost variation among treatments for the same indication. The clinical benefit of cancer treatments does not appear to be a primary determinant of treatment cost, suggesting that current pricing models may be inadequate to incentivize the development and utilization of high-value treatments.