The coordinated bidding of a hydropower producer in three-settlement markets with time-dependent risk measure

Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic and dynamic mixed-integer linear program (SD-MILP) for optimal coordinated bidding of a risk-averse profit-maximizing hydropower producer. The day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time markets are considered. To model and predict day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices, the Holt–Winter (HW) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) predictors are combined using a proposed Markov switch. The discrete behavior of intra-day and real-time prices is modeled as different Markov states. The proposed Markov-based HW–GARCH model with a standard scenario generation-reduction technique is used to capture the uncertainty in day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices. The time-dependent conditional value at risk (T-CVaR) is proposed to model the risk of trading in different considered markets. The convex combination of the expected profit and T-CVaR is used as the objective of SD-MILP. The Markov-based HW–GARCH is modeled in Matlab and the SD-MILP is coded in GAMS. The Markov-based HW–GARCH predictor and the SD-MILP are used to develop the bidding curve of a three-reservoir hydropower producer using the electricity prices from the Nordic power market. To further examine the developed models a seven-reservoir hydropower producer is also studied. For these two cases, the coordinated bidding curves are derived and discussed.