The Convergence in Black–White Infant Mortality Rates During the 1960's

Abstract

The dramatic reduction in the black–white earnings gap from 1965 to 1975 represents the most significant period of economic progress for African-Americans in the post World War II era. After 25 years of contentious research, economists have arrived at a consensus that Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which outlawed employment discrimination, was a major factor underlying the post-1965 trend break in relative earnings (John J. Donahue and James J. Heckman, 1991; David Card and Alan Krueger, 1993). A key piece of supporting evidence is that most gains were concentrated among black workers in the South, where Title VII had its biggest impact. The mortality rate of black infants relative to white infants is another clearly important measure of the relative well-being of AfricanAmericans. Surprisingly, and in contrast to the relative-earnings literature, there are very few studies that focus on long-run trends in the relative health of black infants over time. In addition, the existing research is based on highly aggregated data, both across regions and over time, which provide little information on the precise location and timing of infant mortality changes by race. Consequently, the evidence on the specific factors underlying significant changes in black–white infant health outcomes is sparse and often anecdotal. An examination of infant death rates within a year of birth for whites and nonwhites and the nonwhite–white infant-mortality-rate (IMR) ratio from 1933–1990 in the United States reveals many striking patterns (figure available from authors upon request). Immediately before World War II, about 4.1 percent of white infants and 7.5 percent of black infants died within a year of birth. During World War II, there was a large decline in black infant mortality rates and in the black–white ratio. Since World War II there has been a secular increase in the black– white IMR ratio with one notable exception. In the narrow period of 1965–1970, the black IMR and the black–white ratio declined sharply relative to preexisting trends. Relatively stable during 1961–1965, the black IMR fell 30 percent from 4.0 (per 100 live births) in 1965 to 2.8 in 1971. At the same time, the black–white ratio fell from 1.9 to 1.65, the only prolonged convergence in the post-World War II era. The national patterns suggest that 1965–1970 is the key period for improvements in the relative health of black infants over the past 50 years. This study examines trends in black– white rates of infant death during 1955–1975. To document the location of the improvements, we collected data by race at the state and rural– urban levels, which has not been previously done. Using simple descriptive models, we find † Discussants: David Meltzer, University of Chicago and NBER; Kenneth Chay, University of California–Berkeley and NBER; Jeffrey Grogger, University of California–Los Angeles and NBER; Dan Black, Syracuse University.