Abstract
Abstract The relationships between the initial area expansion rate of tropical convective systems and their total life duration are analyzed during the period of the Wet Season Amazon Mesoscale Campaign/Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (WETAMC/LBA) experiment over tropical South America, using an objective tracking of convective systems during their life cycle from infrared Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. The results show that it is possible to estimate the probable lifetime of a convective system, within certain error bars, considering only its initial area expansion. This result shows that the initial area expansion could be used as a predictor of the life cycle of convective systems. The area expansion is also a good indicator of convective activity such as the diurnal cycle of convection. Over the southwest Amazon, the maximum area expansion occurs close to the time of maximum precipitation and about 4 h before the maximum cold cloud fraction at the same threshold (235...
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