The Controlling Mechanisms of the Recent Global Warming Hiatus: A Focus on the Internal Variabilities

Abstract

A flattening trend of global surface temperature from 1998 to 2013 is generally referred to global warming hiatus. In this review, its basics and controlling mechanisms are the focuses with the latter receiving more attention. The mechanisms for the hiatus are largely derived from internal climate variabilities which could be divided into sea surface temperature (SST) and energy variabilities. The major SST variabilities are Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The negative phase of IPO during the hiatus is associated with strengthened Pacific trade winds that enhance subsurface heat uptake, which is generally thought to be the predominant mechanism for the hiatus. Furthermore, AMO influences the global surface temperature at decadal time scales, or even the IPO, which are considered to be the main drivers of hiatus. As for the energy variabilities, vertical uptake and interbasin redistribution of heat are also suggested to be capable of leading to a hiatus period. There was significant warming of global ocean below 700 m during the hiatus as an evidence for the storage of excessive heat in deep ocean. And various heat redistribution patterns like those through ITF or AMOC could also play a significant role in regulating the hiatus.