The contribution of EMCA to landslide susceptibility mapping in Central Asia

Abstract

<p>Central Asia is one of the most exposed regions in the world to landslide hazard. The large variability of local geological materials, together with the difficulties in forecasting heavy precipitation locally and in quantifying the level of ground shaking, call for harmonized procedures to better quantify the hazard and the negative impact of slope failures across the Central Asian countries. As a first step towards a quantitative landslide hazard and risk assessment, a landslide susceptibility analysis at regional scale has been carried out, by benefitting of novel seismic hazard outcomes reached in the frame of Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA) project. By combining information coming from diverse potential factors, it is possible to detect areas where a potential for landslides exists. Initial results allow the identification of areas that are more susceptible to landslides with a level of accuracy greater than 70%. The presented method is, therefore, capable of supporting land planning activities at the regional scale in places where only scarce data are available.</p>