The contribution of carbon capture and storage to Canada's net-zero plan

Abstract

This study is a first-of-its-kind CO2 source and sink study to enable Canada to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Results show that CO2 emissions of 137 Mtpa is amenable to carbon capture and storage (CCS). Additionally, there is a CO2 storage capacity of 91 Gt in 71,907 gas fields, 8 Gt in 16,990 oil fields and 778 Gt in saline aquifers in 51 sedimentary basins and a CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential of 10,329 million barrels across Canada. CCS projects of 137 Mtpa can be deployed by 2050 in three steps. First, CCS of 60 Mtpa is proposed between 2020 and 2030 at a carbon tax of $24/t for enhanced oil recovery projects in Western Canada with CO2 capture from natural gas processing and chemical plants. Second, CCS of 63 Mtpa can be deployed at a carbon tax of $75/t between 2030 and 2040. The CO2 can be stored in saline aquifer in Western Canada with CO2 captured from natural gas processing and chemical plants. Third, CCS of 14 Mtpa can be deployed at a carbon tax of $134/t between 2040 and 2050 where CO2 emissions captured from natural gas fired power plants are stored in saline aquifers in Eastern Canada. These CCS projects will generate a net present value of $35 billions with investment of $92 billions between 2020 and 2050. Based on the aforementioned CCS source-sink matching in Canada, policies to incentivize the CCS deployment are proposed.