The contrast responses of August precipitation over Northeast China to strong and moderate developing El Niño

Abstract

Northeast China (NEC), which is identified as China's largest granary, has the biggest interannual variability in precipitation in August, which is low on predictive skill. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the prime source of climate predictability and its temporal evolution is critical to improving the forecasting of summer NEC precipitation. At present, the impacts of a developing-ENSO on August NEC precipitation are unclear. Hence, this study investigates the complex relationship between a developing-ENSO and NEC precipitation in August. The results show that a strong (moderate) developing-El Niño can lead to positive (negative) August precipitation anomalies over NEC, while a neutral ENSO or La Niña have a weak influence on NEC August precipitation. Specifically, a strong developing-El Niño can cause cyclonic/southerly anomalies over NEC by stimulating northwestward wave propagation in the lower troposphere and Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) in the upper troposphere. While in a moderate developing-El Niño, the opposite CGT results in anticyclonic/northerly anomalies over NEC; and the warming Indian Ocean associated with the moderate developing-El Niño could excite Pacific-Japan patten. Consequently, southerly (northerly) anomalies can generate positive (negative) anomalous advection of climatological moist enthalpy in a strong (moderate) developing-El Niño, which then contributes to ascending (descending) motion and positive (negative) precipitation anomalies. However, in the neutral ENSO and La Niña phases, the zonal or weak meridional wind anomalies cannot exert a great influence on NEC precipitation in August. The complex relationship between August precipitation over NEC and developing ENSO can be well reproduced by numerical simulations, which demonstrate the robustness of the proposed physical mechanism.