The Content of IMF Staff Reports for Euro Area Countries

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the tone and information content of the two external policy reports of the Internal Monetary Fund (IMF), the IMF Article IV Staff Reports, and Executive Board Assessments for Euro area countries. In particular, the researchers create a tone measure denoted WARNING based on the existing DICTION 5.0 Hardship dictionary. This study finds that in the run-up to the current credit crises, average WARNING tone levels of Staff Reports for Slovenia, Luxembourg, Greece, and Malta are one standard deviation above the EMU sample mean; and for Spain and Belgium, they are one standard deviation below the mean value. Furthermore, on average for Staff Reports over the period 2005-2007, there are insignificant differences between the EMU sample mean and Staff Reports’ yearly averages. Researchers find the presence of a significantly increased level of WARNING tone in 2006 (compared to the previous year) for the IMF Article IV Staff Reports. There is also a systematic bias of WARNING scores for Executive Board Assessments versus WARNING scores for the Staff Reports.