Abstract
We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible–infected–suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology.
Highlights
The rapid increase in the US incarceration rate over the last few decades has been described as an epidemic
White and Black incarceration rates, in reality, have been disparate throughout history, we initialize the simulations equivalently under the two scenarios to rule out the possibility that the resultant disparities are due to initial conditions alone
In its current form, our model clearly demonstrates the plausibility of our hypothesis that incarceration may be spread in a manner similar to a contagious disease and that sentencing disparities may be a major cause of racial differences in incarceration rates
Summary
The rapid increase in the US incarceration rate over the last few decades has been described as an epidemic. It has been shown that the children of incarcerated parents tend to display increased levels of behaviour issues [20], including aggressive behaviour [21], a predictor of criminality in later life Close family members, such as the inmates’ domestic partners, experience the acute effects of their family member’s incarceration. Economic and social mobility data show that children born into low income households to parents with low education are themselves more likely to have low levels of educational attainment and to earn a relatively low income in adulthood [25] These are, risk factors for incarceration, reinitiating the incarceration–poverty cycle in a new generation [10,24]. We expect that similar nonlinear effects will be found in many other contagion-like social systems
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