The contagious effects on economic development after resuming construction policy for nuclear power plants in Coastal China

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of China’s 2005–2020 nuclear expansion policy on the stock prices of nine major economic sectors in China, Japan and the US. Contagion tests based on changes in co-volatility and both forms of co-kurtosis are applied to identify how policy shocks impact markets and sectors. Monte Carlo experiments show that all of these tests perform well in power and that the co-kurtosis test performs better than the co-volatility test. Results for 2011 through 2016 show that China’s nuclear expansion policy has the most impact on sectors in China, with less significance in Japan, and with the least effect in the US. The most significant effects are coincident with major events that occurred in the post-announcement period when the 13th Five Year Plan was implemented. Sectors which are closely related to nuclear power are the most sensitive to policy announcements.