The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures

Abstract

We examine the contagion effect of residential foreclosures and find strong evidence of a social interactions influence on default decisions where the interaction is based on neighbors’ behavior in a previous period. Using a unique spatially explicit parcel level data set documenting residential foreclosures in Maryland for the years 2006-2009 and a highly localized neighborhood definition, based on 13 nearest neighbors, we find that a neighbor in foreclosure increases the hazard of additional defaults by as much as 28%. This feedback effect goes beyond a temporary reduction in local house prices and implies a negative social multiplier effect of foreclosures.