The Constant K and the Gaussian temporal evolution for COVID-19 & new wave of COVID -X

Abstract

This paper is an invitation from the South Florida Journal of Development[1] for the republication of an original version published in reference (A - Balloni & Winter, 2020). This paper presents a slightly updated version of the original publication and includes "Recommendations2" concerns about a possible new wave of COVID-X in the section. This republication has been allowed by the IJONEST Journal and iLSET conference (A, B, C: Balloni, A. J. & Winter, R. (2020). The paper presents the Gaussian temporal evolution of Corona Virus, the temporal average constant Ktemporal average constant = Kt. The Kt and its standard deviation come from the 52 experimental Gaussian distribution analysis -histogram-. We have analyzed all histograms from 185 countries presented in the reference (Johns Hopkins, 2020), and we found 52 countries have a definite trend toward an experimental Gaussian profile. As a result, we found Kt = K52 countries = (35 ± 5) days - average & standard deviation-. Using an experimental Gaussian got in reference (Johns Hopkins, 2020), we also calculate the temporal evolution of the World, the constant Kworld. We found Kworld = Kw = (47 ± ½) days. Finally, up to April 20/2020, only 52 (C: Balloni, A. J. & Winter, R. (2020)) of 185 countries present trends toward an experimental Gaussian profile (Johns Hopkins, 2020). The main conclusion from this short communication is that the standard deviation found -Kt = (35 ± 5) days-is very low, which is very good. Therefore, we may conclude that the maximum spread of the Corona contamination should occur in "a maximum" of up to 40 days from the first registered contamination and, in the worst scenario, up to 30 days. Regarding the Brazil peak of contamination, on March 10/2020, we carried out A PREVISION, and in that time, we affirmed by reasoning that the peak in Brazil would be around 10-15 April/2020. We confirm this prevision, as presented in the ILSET/2020 Congress (C: Balloni, A. J. & Winter, R. (2020)). For our next prevision, the decrease from contamination must trend to zero within 30-40 days after the peak contamination, and we also confirm this prevision as presented in the ILSET/2020 Congress (C: Balloni, A. J. & Winter, R. (2020)). These are the most critical situations because the real zero takes a while to get null, and the contamination starts all over if no personal safety, such as social reclusion & mask protection use, are adopted. Finally, we have observed that the Kw has a shifting in the function of the time, and our finding explains this. The last section, "Recommendations, item 2," presents concerns about a possible new wave of COVID-X.