Abstract
The consolidation/transition model conceptualizes development as entailing a cyclical pattern of alternating consolidation and transition phases and posits that stage advance is predicted by a specific distribution of reasoning across stages indicative of disequilibrium (more reasoning above than below the mode, with a high degree of mixture). The validity of this model was examined in the context of moral reasoning development with the use of standard statistical techniques as well as Bayesian techniques that can better account for classification error. In this longitudinal study. 64 children and adolescents participated in 5 annual administrations of the Moral Judgment Interview. The distribution of their reasoning across stages was used to predict subsequent development. The results support the hypotheses regarding cyclical patterns of change and predictors of stage transition and demonstrate the utility of Bayesian techniques for evaluating developmental change.
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