The conservation of arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia — VII. Modelling the persistence of Leadbeater's possum in response to modified timber harvesting practices

Abstract

A computer model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was used to simulate the relationship between the persistence of populations of the endangered species, Leadbeater's possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri and the implementation of a range of possible modified timber harvesting practices in two wood production blocks within the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. The results of our analyses revealed that under the existing conservation strategies there was a high probability of extinction over the next 150 years in both blocks. Given that timber production areas comprise more than 75% of the distribution of G. leadbeateri, our findings highlight a need for additional conservation measures to enhance the survival prospects of the species. The range of upgraded conservation strategies that were examined included (1) extending the rotation time between logging operations; (2) modifying silvicultural practices to increase the amount of forest retained within each harvested coupe; and (3) permanently withdrawing areas from wood production. All of each of these approaches were found significantly to reduce the probability of extinction of populations of G. leadbeateri. However, when the relative merits of the various strategies were compared, the permanent withdrawal of potential logging coupes from timber harvesting was predicted to be the most efficient approach. Importantly, this strategy would have a number of practical advantages including that it overcomes both (1) the logistic difficulties of ensuring the long-term survival of retained trees within logged areas; and (2) human safety issues arising from implementing modified silvicultural practices. This practical application of PVA to compare the merits of different potential management options has provided new information that will enhance present efforts to conserve G. leadbeateri in wood production areas.