Abstract
The conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine and the growing geopolitical tensions have had a significant impact on the economy and society of the country. As a result, it deepened the recession and diverged from the planned development indicators. In particular, this concerns international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the country's budget deficit. Multilateral economic changes, exacerbated by the impact of hostilities in the Eastern part of the country have transformed the structure of socio-demographic processes in Ukraine. Armed confrontation causes a continuous deterioration of demographic and economic indicators of development not only of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also has an impact on the whole country. This confrontation is also accompanied by the loss (destruction, theft, etc.) of public assets. The estimated cost of destroyed components of industrial, communal, social, transport, energy and other infrastructure are indicative due to the inability to inspect objects located within the territory controlled by terrorist groups. The conflict has also affected the investment attractiveness of the country, which accelerates the creation of a depressed nature of country’s development. Therefore, in the context of hostility in the Eastern Ukraine, it is important to understand and study its destabilizing impact, not only on domestic economic and demographic indicators, but also on the volume of foreign investment, which will allow us to understand the level of country’s involvement in the global investment space and the real impact of military action on the population and on international economic affairs of Ukraine. As a result of this scientific research, the population and GDP forecast have been conducted. It is worth noting that the forecast itself based on regression mathematical modelling which includes past data and can be accurate if current conditions are stable in the future.
Highlights
Five years ago, in February, 2014, the Russia broke out the war against Ukraine without any announcement of intention
The economic crisis has a negative impact on the well-being of the population, which in turn is reflected in the overall state of development of demographic and social processes
Political and economic spheres are closely linked, political uncertainty and corruption lead to a crisis in the economic sphere, which in its turn has a negative impact on the demographic sphere
Summary
In February, 2014, the Russia broke out the war against Ukraine without any announcement of intention. In violation of the rules and principles of international law, bilateral and multilateral agreements, the Russian Federation annexed the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, occupied certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The approximate number of casualties in Ukraine is estimated between 30 and 35 ths. Residents of Eastern Ukraine have been forced to leave their homes. The infrastructure of the occupied regions has been destroyed and 27% of the Donbas industrial potential has been illegally transferred to Russia (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2019)
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