Abstract
As global temperatures rise, drought-induced human relocation is expected to increase. Using original national survey data from Kenya, we investigate whether people who report relocating due to drought are more likely to be victims of violence than people who do not move. We also examine whether this migrant sample supports the use of violence at higher levels than the general population, conditional on their experiences. We measure the duration of relocation (temporary versus permanent) as well as the characteristics of the arrival area, including co-ethnic demographics. Controlling for many individual-level and contextual variables, we find that those who have relocated are consistently more likely to be victims of violence than those who have not. We also find that those who relocated temporarily support the use of violence at higher levels than the general population if and only if they are themselves victims of violence. Vulnerable migrant populations may be subject to violence as observational aggregate studies suggest, but they are not likely to be the sources of violence unless victimized first.
Highlights
As much as 12% of the world’s population in 2010 feared being forced to relocate due to severe environmental problems [1 p. 52]
Controlling for demographic characteristics, are people who reported relocating due to droughts more likely to be victims of violence than those who did not report relocating due to droughts? Second, are people who report moving due to droughts and, if applicable, violence victimization, more likely than the general population to support the use of violence? Our goal is not to explain migration caused by drought, but rather to evaluate some of the effects of self-reported relocation due to water shortages
We examined the experiences of Kenyans who selfreport relocating because of drought or water shortages
Summary
As much as 12% of the world’s population in 2010 feared being forced to relocate due to severe environmental problems [1 p. 52]. As much as 12% of the world’s population in 2010 feared being forced to relocate due to severe environmental problems [1 p. Scholars have emphasized the value of investigating environmental migration at an individual-level [15, 16], because doing so allows us to understand mobility related to employment opportunities [17], land use [18], and other outcomes. Our research advances a growing body of related conflict studies [19–25] in gathering and analyzing original national survey data from Kenya. Both empirically and theoretically, we build upon research [26] that questions the most simplistic narratives about climateinduced migration and violence
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