Abstract
MCCALL, ROBERT B. The Confluence Model and Theory. CHILD DEVELOPMENT, 1985, 56, 217-218. Berbaum and Moreland's study helps to counter certain criticisms of the confluence model. Specifically, it shows that the model does predict for individuals as well as groups, and that support for the model depends in part on using analyses that are appropriate to the model. However, from a sheer prediction standpoint, the model is not very efficient, since very modest increments in accuracy are associated with family configuration variables once chronological age is covaried (and less if parental intelligence is also covaried). However, a failure of the model to predict accurately does not necessarily invalidate major postulates of confluence theory, which should be tested directly, within individuals, and with longitudinal data. A few existing studies suggest that some theoretical propositions may be valid.
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