Abstract
Abstract. The explosive cyclogenesis of extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers are characteristic features of a baroclinic atmosphere, and are both closely related to extreme hydrometeorological events in the mid-latitudes, particularly on coastal areas on the western side of the continents. The potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening has been previously analysed for selected case studies, but a general assessment from the climatological perspective is still missing. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM). Atmospheric rivers are identified for almost 80 % of explosive deepening cyclones. For non-explosive cyclones, atmospheric rivers are found only in roughly 40 % of the cases. The analysis of the time evolution of the high values of water vapour flux associated with the atmospheric river during the cyclone development phase leads us to hypothesize that the identified relationship is the fingerprint of a mechanism that raises the odds of an explosive cyclogenesis occurrence and not merely a statistical relationship. These new insights on the relationship between explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers may be helpful to a better understanding of the associated high-impact weather events.
Highlights
Intense extratropical cyclones are one of the major natural threats in mid-latitudes and are often responsible for large socioeconomic impacts (Munich Re, 2015)
For methods based on reanalysis data, we focus on the integrated horizontal water vapour transport (IVT) (e.g. Zhu and Newell, 1998; Lavers et al, 2013) or the method of Eiras-Barca et al (2016), which uses a combination of integrated water vapour column (IWV) and IVT from ERA-Interim reanalysis
The obtained information was used to estimate the relevance of the atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of explosive cyclogenesis and compare it with the corresponding NEC results
Summary
Intense extratropical cyclones are one of the major natural threats in mid-latitudes and are often responsible for large socioeconomic impacts (Munich Re, 2015) Their impacts include strong winds, heavy precipitation, and in some cases storm surges Lamb, 1991) In particular, cases associated with explosive cyclogenesis (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980; pressure decrease larger than 24 hPa in 24 h at 60◦ N, or equivalent) are associated with large impacts and often with low predictability (e.g. Wernli et al, 2002; Fink et al, 2009). Such systems are often referred to in the literature as “bombs”. Aubert (1957) states that this mechanism lowers the heights of isobaric surfaces in the lower troposphere, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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