Abstract

Worldwide, debt and interest on debt continue to increase in terms of both the amount and the ratio of national income. While borrowing should be used for investment purposes or preferred in bad times, it is seen that it is used intensely for consumption purposes, including the good periods of the economy, as seen before the pandemic. In this context, it is important to identify the variables that cause the debt growth and to develop policies to keep the debt growth at a moderate level. In this article, the growth of Turkey's external debt stock is modeled with the triple deficit concept and the cointegration method using the relevant data for the 1975-2020 period. It has been observed that the biggest significant positive effect on the total debt is from the difference of the reserve.

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