The Concealed Weaknesses of Strong Early Warning Systems. The Case of Mexico

Abstract

Abstract In September 2017, in only 17 days, two enormous earthquakes triggered Mexico’s earthquake early warning system (EEWS) in a unique sequence of events that tested its capabilities. Through a series of unforeseen circumstances, including a test and an accident, during those two and a half weeks, the EEWS was also activated three additional times. The EEWS presents several remarkable strengths. Mexico’s entire emergency management system is relatively well resourced and has helped produce a more resilient culture that appreciates the alert system. Public agencies in all levels of government work in close coordination. However, the system has not been able to overcome continual political expediency and general public distrust of some of its components. The consequence is an alert system that is relatively strong in Mexico City but leaves much of the rest of the country unprotected. But even in Mexico City, the system suffers from extensive concealed vulnerabilities that put the population and the city’s infrastructure at risk. In this paper, I analyze two specific weaknesses. The first is a result of weak regulations and inappropriate business models, which impacts the country as a whole. The second is essentially a local complication resulting from the increased risk generated by the excessive trust of the population in the sirens that are so characteristic of the system. The data were collected during a reconnaissance trip organized by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) in October 2017.