Abstract

The allocation puzzle is the positive correlation between growth and capital outflows across developing countries. I decompose capital outflows into its components (private savings, public guaranteed debt, and international reserve flows) and document their contributions beginning from a growth episode. I show that the positive cross-sectional correlation between growth and net out flow of private savings leads the growth start, public savings lags, and international reserve lags. Finally, the positive correlation between growth and aggregated capital outflows - the allocation puzzle - disappear after twenty years. None of the proposed solutions to the allocation puzzle can match these data findings.

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