Abstract

This study investigates a complex system that describes a non-trivial epidemiological model with integrated internal conflict (interregional migration) on the example of cyclic migration using the software. JetBrains PyCharm Community Edition 2020.3.3, a free and open-source integrated development environment (IDE) in the Python programming language, was chosen as the software development tool. The Matplotlib 3.5 library was used to display the modelling results graphically. The integration of internal conflict into the model revealed significant and notable changes in its behavior. This study’s results prove that not only the characteristics of the interaction factors but also the size of the values determine the direction of migration concerning relation to competitors.

Highlights

  • Despite the global distribution of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic still poses a serious threat

  • The presented method has three essential aspects that make it different from previous presented models: (1) our model focuses on the interaction strategy rather than assuming that the strategies are independent [24]; (2) our model takes into account the initial state of the strategy, which is ignored in the existing population dynamics literature [25,26]; (3) in our model, the influence of the environment is considered dynamic in an open system, in contrast to the existing literature, where the capacity of the environment was constant [27]

  • Due to the migration of large numbers of people susceptible to infection, there was a further increase in the number of infected in the second and third regions

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Summary

Introduction

Despite the global distribution of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic still poses a serious threat. The infectious diseases models use basic assumptions or statistics paired with mathematical approaches to calculate disease rate, mortality, and other parameters that describe an epidemic’s nature, provide the information for strategy development and test a model’s effectiveness [13]. The effectiveness of such predictions, accuracy and recency of the data depends on the consideration of all important factors and rules. Our model allows us to conduct a global analysis of its dynamics in several regions through the introduction of internal conflict interaction This is a completely different approach, which combines two models instead of improving only one. The presented method has three essential aspects that make it different from previous presented models: (1) our model focuses on the interaction strategy rather than assuming that the strategies are independent [24]; (2) our model takes into account the initial state of the strategy, which is ignored in the existing population dynamics literature [25,26]; (3) in our model, the influence of the environment is considered dynamic in an open system, in contrast to the existing literature, where the capacity of the environment was constant [27]

Simulations Based on SIR Model
Model of Conflict Interaction of Complex Systems
The Influence of Internal Conflict on the Described Epidemiological Model
Determination of Moving for Population Groups
Results of the Third Example
Results of the Fourth Example
Conclusions
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